When a line doesn't make sense

 Last night I was in need of a Bears +6 cover.  It was the last leg of a 6 team parlay.  When the line opened up last week, with Los Angeles -6.5, I immediately saw value in the bears, a 5-1 team, and in my head an overvalued Rams team sitting at 4-2.  Sure the rams were home, but in what universe did the rams deserve to be 6 - 6.5 favorites of anybody, let alone a 5-1 team.  In came some movement on the game, as it went to -5.5 as I figured would happened, and assumed this line would close maybe -3-3.5 with how I saw it.  Then the line went to -6 again, and then -6.5.  Hmm, what was going on that I did not know about?

I pondered throughout the day and realized something was going on.  I asked my friends questions.  Then I heard on the radio, someone say this line just doesn't make sense.  The only thing it probably means is the Rams win by double digits.  Sure enough, that is exactly what happened.  Rams win 24-10.  Smart money that moved the line back up to -6.5 was the sharps, and they won their bet.  

It boggles my mind when something like that happens.  Following the money, especially in the NFL is the winning betting strategy.  Identifying it can be daunting at points, especially when you see a 2020 Green Bay Packers move from a low -3 to -2.5 vs a lowly, bad Texans team.  

Other notable line moves from the previous week, some that made 0 sense.  Eagles from -6.5 to -5 ( at some points -4) vs the Giants.  Eagles win by 1 and Giants cover the spread.  Jets +9.5 from +1.5.  Jets lose by 8 vs the Bills and cover.

Important to note, road underdogs with a line move in their favor are 33-18 ATS (65%) on this season.  

When a line doesn't make sense, your best bet is to go the other way.  In hindsight, Rams -6.5 was a great bet (which made little sense).  But if you follow the money and do what lines tell you to do, you will become a profitable bettor.  These are teachable moments.  Until next time, keep following the sharps and cash.